Three predictors, each scored against the window it stated — and those windows are not the same size, so every in-window rate is shown with the width it was earned on. These are aggregates over many eruptions, so there is no single actual to measure from: each plot is centred on that source's own prediction, the shaded band is the stated window, the bar is the typical miss, the dot is which way it leans. Right of centre means the eruption ran late.
One row per logged eruption, one plot per source, all three on one scale. The orange line is the eruption itself, at the same place in every lane: a source's dot is the time it actually said, its band is the window it stated around that, and the gap back to the line is how far it missed. Left of the line predicted early, right of it late.
A push when a geyser you follow does something worth walking for. Three kinds, and they are not equally useful — the honest version is below.
How much warning this actually buys. GeyserTimes syncs on a five-minute cycle and so do we, so a logged Indicator reaches you roughly 6–10 minutes later. Beehive follows its Indicator by about 13 minutes. That is a few minutes of notice if you are already in the Upper Geyser Basin, and none at all if you are at Norris. Window alerts are held overnight (22:00–06:00 park time); precursors and Steamboat are not, because somebody was standing there in the dark to log them.